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Monday, August 10th, 2009

Time Event
7:46p
Конец "конца рецессии"
Интересная презентация о нашем не-столь-радужном ближайшем будущем (via dvv7)
The End Of The End Of The Recession: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-end-recession

Обмен письмами с другом:

FL: Don't worry. Anyone with an internet connection can figure out that it's all but over.....but then again, the consumeriat is being fed optimism. As plain as that.

PL: ... as it should be.
Actually, my question for this dynamics is: will things go worse even further, as the model of capitalism as is is essentially flawed, and there is no replacement? Or, exactly because of this, people will stick to tricks they've learnt, and there will be no major change - the govts pumped money into economies, this will fuel new cycle, trust will be restored, and then we have to play until the next, even more severe, crisis hits?
My own thought: this present cycle might be just hitting the bottom, but, since there is no solution, we will see a short recovery (max 5 yrs) and then a new crisis hits again. The engine of growth (this time) will be Khanna's 'second world' converted into consumers, and the financial capitalism will continue for a while, although a bit suppressed by govt regulation.

FL: Yes, I also do not see a sudden system breakdown but a slow decay, accelerated at some points. The fact is that (as we've said numerous times) this is not JUST an economic crisis. What we are seeing is an overall loss of civil values in the west - need and greed winning, a loss of long-time perspective and an inability to turn the tide at a nation-wide and super-nation-wide level. Capitalism in itself is decaying, because those rules are not being restored and observed. However it will not be quick, and I agree with your scenario. In the short term, I do expect another decline in stock markets in the Fall, which is what I was referring to.

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